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Policymakers and businesses must therefore try to capture the full value of what AI has to offer, while avoiding the downside risks.The idea of AI has been around for more than a half-century, and we have lived through previous periods of excitement followed by long stretches of disappointment -- "AI winters" -- when the tech didn't live up to the hype. (AI will also create some negative externalities and transition costs, but these will be outweighed by its benefits).We estimate that AI and analytics could add as much as $13 trillion to total output by 2030, increasing the annual rate of global GDP growth by more than one percentage point. As AI contributes to faster GDP growth, social welfare is also likely to increase. We estimate that AI and related technologies could improve welfare by 0.5 percent to 1 percent per year between now and 2030 . One of the most exciting aspects of AI is its potential to help address a wide range of social challenges.For all its potential, however, AI also poses substantial challenges that need to be addressed. Despite these challenges, AI can generate tremendous value for us all, if policymakers and businesses act swiftly and smartly to capture its full benefits and mitigate the inevitable risks.
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