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No one likes to predict recession, but the global economy is likely to experience a significant slowdown before the end of 2019, and the slowdown may be necessary to relieve upward pressure on oil prices.In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecasts the global economy will expand at 3.9 percent in both 2018 and 2019, slightly faster than the 3.7 percent achieved in 2017 .U.S. recessions in 1973-1974, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 all helped to cool previous rapid increases in oil prices by cutting consumption growth.With the oil market running out of capacity, commodity prices rising and interest rates turning higher, it seems increasingly likely the global economy will experience a slowdown within the next 18 months.The global economy and the oil market appear to be on an unsustainable trajectory, and the only way to resolve the growing contradictions is likely to be a slowdown in the next 18 months.
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